Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated this week that while inflation expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s 2% target, downside risks to employment and elevated uncertainty leave policymakers without a “risk-free” policy path. He also noted that tariffs are likely to result in a one-time price adjustment spread over several quarters. U.S. equities ended Friday higher […]
Major U.S. stock indexes hit record highs during the week. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.21%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.22% and 1.05%, respectively. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 6 basis points to 4.13%. The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, […]
In Europe, the ECB left rates unchanged at 2% but lifted its 2025 inflation and growth forecasts, prompting markets to assume that interest rate cuts are over in the region. German data was mixed, with exports down and factory orders weaker, though output improved. In the UK, GDP was flat in July, retail sales were […]
In response to the jobs report, futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool now reflect a 100% probability of at least a 25-basis-point (0.25 percentage point) rate cut at the Fed's next meeting. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut increased from 0% to roughly 10% following the data. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year […]
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