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MONTHLY MARKET OVERVIEW & COMMENTARY | AUGUST 2023

Global markets faced a challenging August, characterized by mixed economic data, a persistently hawkish Federal Reserve, rising sovereign bond yields and worries over renewed weakness in the Chinese real estate sector. However this behaviour for markets at this time of the year isn't out of character. History tells us that August has been the second-worst performing month of the year […]

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Week in Review: U.S. unemployment rate hits 17-month high

An increase in the number of job seekers caused the U.S. unemployment rate to rise in August, climbing from 3.5% to 3.8%. The collapse of a major trucking company resulted in the loss of 37,000 jobs in that industry, while the Hollywood writers' strike led to 17,000 people losing their jobs, as reported by the […]

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Week in Review: Mixed Signals

The annual Jackson Hole symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City commenced on Thursday. During the event, several Federal Reserve officials indicated that although there might not be an immediate need to increase rates, they are likely to keep rates at a restrictive level for an extended period. Jerome Powell, the Chair […]

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Week in Review: US Treasury Yields Rise

Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields hit a 10-month high this past week as investors focused on the prospects of longer-lasting high-interest rates and a struggling Chinese economy. This week’s broad risk-off follows the publication on Wednesday of minutes from the last Federal Reserve (“Fed”) meeting that suggested officials are considering tighter policy, dampening hopes that the central bank […]

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Week in Review: Softer U.S. Core CPI

The past week witnessed a varied performance in the major U.S. stock markets. Investors grappled with the implications of subdued inflation data against concerns stemming from the recent uptick in long-term interest rates. Notably, value stocks displayed stronger performance compared to growth stocks. The trading activity remained subdued, partially attributable to the ongoing summer vacation […]

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Week in Review: Fitch Downgrades the U.S.

Global equity markets have had a tough start to August, as Fitch Ratings unexpectedly downgraded the U.S.'s credit rating from AAA to AA+. This marked the second credit downgrade in U.S. history, raising concerns about the country's fiscal outlook and highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges worldwide. While the impact on financial markets may be limited, it […]

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Week in Review: A Central Bank Trifecta

The Federal Reserve (the Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) all made significant announcements this week. The Fed delivered another interest rate hike this week, as expected, while Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there might be additional hikes in the future, depending on the incoming data, which has recently […]

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Week in Review: SA's Central Bank Pauses

In June, spending at US retailers continued its positive growth trend for the third consecutive month, showcasing resilience among American consumers. According to the Commerce Department's report on Tuesday, retail spending increased by +0.2%, adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. However, this growth rate was slower than the revised +0.5% increase observed in the previous […]

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Mid-Year Market and Economic Outlook

As we bid farewell to June and conclude the second quarter of 2023, it’s essential to reflect on the plethora of news and data that has shaped the past three months. From inflation and interest rates to GDP figures, US debt ceiling negotiations, and the rand at (repeated) record lows against the US dollar, the […]

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Weekly Review: Interest Rates Higher for Longer  

After a strong performance in the first half of 2023, markets experienced a slight setback in the first week of the third quarter. The catalyst behind this week’s pullback was the release of the Fed’s minutes and stronger-than-expected U.S. services data, increasing expectations for an extended period of higher interest rates. Minutes from the Federal […]

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