CAPTA WEALTH on 2023-12-11

The fears that have dragged on the stock market since August evaporated in November as global markets surged, reversing losses compounded over the three prior months. This comes as various economic indicators supported the view that major central banks had reached the peak of their tightening cycles.

As of the end of November 2023, the S&P 500 posted a total return of about 21% for the year, well above its average annual return of around 10%. Technology, communication services and consumer discretionary stocks have also notched big rebounds in 2023, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite  gained around 37% in 2023. 

Simultaneously, developed market inflation continued its downtrend, fuelling positive investor sentiment as developed market equities (MSCI World) rallied +9.4% over the month. Emerging market stocks (MSCI World EM) rose +8%, with China continuing to weigh negatively on performance.

While the majority of equity sectors saw positive momentum in November, the energy sector faced a downturn in share prices, influenced by the decline in energy prices. The negative trend was particularly evident in Brent crude oil, which experienced a 5.2% MoM decrease. Pessimism regarding Chinese economic activity played a significant role, with concerns arising from diminishing refining margins and increasing stockpiles in the world's largest oil-importing nation, adversely affecting demand expectations.


Despite apprehensions surrounding inflation, increasing interest rates, an unexpected regional banking crisis, and escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide, the U.S. economy demonstrated resilience, with corporate profits experiencing an upward trajectory. Notably, technology stocks regained strength in November, with the leading "Magnificent 7" mega-cap tech stocks spearheading the market surge.


Similar indicators emerged in Europe (and the UK), where inflation fell notably below expectations across several countries as well as unexpected positive surprises arose in unemployment figures. Germany’s DAX gained 9.5% MoM (+16.5% YTD), while France’s CAC Index closed November 6.2% higher (+12.9% YTD) while the UK’s blue-chip FTSE-100 advanced by 1.8% in November and is up 0.03% YTD.


China’s equity markets were the outlier in November’s stock market rally as investor concerns around that country’s economic recovery continued to weigh on sentiment. In addition, Hong Kong-listed China property share prices also continued to drop. China's official Manufacturing PMI extended its decline into contraction, registering at 49.4 compared to October's 49.5 figure. On the flip side and despite a disappointing Q3 GDP growth release of -0.5% q/q, Japan maintained its position as the top performer for the year, gaining 8.52% in November and achieving 28.33% year-to-date (Nikkei 225).

In November, the South African (SA) stock market experienced a significant positive shift in investor sentiment, with the FTSE/JSE Capped SWIX Index recording a month-on-month gain of 8.3%. This recovery effectively reclaimed a substantial portion of the losses sustained in the three months preceding November.

Nevertheless, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) maintained its key interest rate at 8.25% (in line with expectations) during its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Consensus expects headline inflation to retreat to its targeted 4.5% midpoint in the first half of 2024.

On the currency front, unlike its emerging market peers, the rand depreciated against the U.S. dollar in November with a 0.3% decline and is one of only four emerging-market peers to weaken. This marks a year-to-date decrease of -9.6% against the USD, closing the month at 18.86.
 Credits: Strategic IQ,, Forbes

Speak to a CAPTA Wealth Team Specialist

To schedule a consultation with a Wealth Manager or to learn more about our service offering, contact us at
Contact Us
Capta Wealth logo reversed
CAPTA Wealth (Pty) Ltd is an authorised financial services provider. FSP No. 43071.


Mon - Fri : 08:00 - 17:00
Pin Oak House, 2nd Floor, Bally Oaks Office Park
Ballyclare Drive, Bryanston, 2191 11 568 4461
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram