Week in Review: Iran Conflict Stokes Inflation Fears

Global equity markets ended a volatile, holiday-shortened week in positive territory, with tentative signs of Middle East de-escalation lifting sentiment. The Nasdaq led the way, logging its best week since November, while the S&P 500 and Dow gained 3.36% and 2.96% respectively. European markets followed suit, with the STOXX 50 up 3.4% and the UK's FTSE 100 gaining 4.7%.

The mood swung sharply through the week. Equities rallied early on hopes the US campaign in Iran was nearing its end, only to reverse after Trump's Wednesday evening address threatened further escalation, including strikes on Iranian oil facilities over the next two to three weeks, while offering no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Markets largely recovered by Thursday's close.

Brent crude surged above $109/barrel, its highest level in nearly four years on renewed supply disruption fears, while gold rebounded nearly 4% to around $4,672/oz as the dollar strengthened and rate cut hopes faded. US Treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield falling from 4.44% to 4.31%, aided by Fed Chair Powell's comments tempering near-term inflation concerns.

Eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, above the ECB's 2% target, driven by a 4.9% surge in energy costs. ECB President Lagarde signalled the central bank is monitoring the situation closely and stands ready to hike rates if necessary, even if the inflation spike proves temporary.

Japan's Nikkei fell 1.7% amid expectations the Bank of Japan may raise rates at its April meeting in response to oil-driven inflation pressures. Chinese markets were mixed, while Beijing and Islamabad jointly proposed a five-point peace plan calling for a ceasefire and protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.

Next week, focus remains on the Iran conflict as it enters its sixth week, alongside US CPI, FOMC minutes, the PCE report, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and monetary policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of India.

Market Moves of the Week

South African Revenue Service (SARS) collected a net R2.01 trillion in tax for the fiscal year ended 31 March, 8.4% higher year-on-year and R24.7 billion above the 2025 budget forecast. The agency credited compliance initiatives, improved efficiency, and a strong contribution from the mining sector. For 2026/27, SARS is targeting R2.13 trillion, a 5.8% increase.

President Ramaphosa has appointed Ngobani Makhubu as the new SARS Commissioner for five years, effective 1 May. Makhubu, currently Deputy Commissioner for Taxpayer Engagement and Operations, takes over from Edward Kieswetter, who steps down after seven years at the helm.

On the fuel front, petrol rose R3.06/litre to R23.25 from 1 April, while inland diesel hit a record R26.11/litre, up R7.51. The Iran conflict, which has pushed Brent above $100/barrel and pressured the rand, is the primary driver. A R3/litre fuel levy cut softened the blow, without it, economists warned the increase could have added at least 1.0 percentage point to annual CPI in April. February CPI came in at 3.0% year-on-year, bang on the SARB's target, leaving little room for an unmanaged fuel shock.

Markets recovered some recent losses, with the FTSE/JSE All Share ending the holiday-shortened week 3.9% higher, buoyed by resource counters. The rand also firmed, gaining over 1% to close at R16.92/$.dollar, while the South African 10-year government bond yield edged slightly lower to 9.19%.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
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CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

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Week in Review: Markets Navigate Rising Energy Risks

Global markets faced a turbulent week as the escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to overshadow economic fundamentals, driving oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in over three years. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical artery through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes has sent energy prices sharply higher, rattling investor confidence across virtually every major asset class and region. Against this backdrop, slowing US economic growth and sticky inflation added to an already complex investment environment.

U.S. equity markets declined for a third consecutive week, with the benchmark S&P 500 ending the week 1.6% lower, recording its lowest level of 2026, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost approximately 2% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3%. Sentiment was further weighed down by concerns emerging in private credit markets, where several funds moved to cap withdrawals amid a wave of redemption requests.

On the economic front, the data was sobering. US GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised sharply lower to just 0.7% annualised, well below expectations and a meaningful step down from the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024. Core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure rose 3.1% year-on-year in January, running above the Fed's 2% target. Critically, this data predates the Middle East escalation, meaning the full inflationary impact of energy prices is yet to be captured in official figures.

Consumer confidence also deteriorated, with the University of Michigan Sentiment Index falling to 55.5 in March, its lowest reading in three months, as higher petrol prices weighed directly on household budgets.

In Europe and the UK, the economic backdrop is also becoming more fragile. Survey data pointed to slower growth in March, with eurozone business activity easing, German business confidence weakening and the OECD lowering its 2026 growth forecasts for both the eurozone and the UK. The common thread is that higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty are placing additional strain on economies that were already growing modestly.

At the same time, inflation remains sticky enough to limit how quickly central banks can respond. The European Central Bank has indicated that it stands ready to act if necessary, but policymakers say it is still too early to judge whether the recent rise in energy prices will translate into a more persistent inflation problem. In the UK, headline inflation held around 3% in February, while softer retail sales, weaker consumer confidence and slowing services activity suggest that households are becoming more cautious again.

In Japan, higher oil prices and yen weakness remained central to the outlook. As a major energy importer, Japan is particularly exposed to rising oil costs, both through higher business input costs and pressure on household spending. At the same time, the yen’s weakness has kept the risk of official currency intervention in focus for investors. Although inflation softened somewhat in February, much of the decline reflected temporary government energy relief measures rather than a meaningful easing in underlying price pressures. As a result, the Bank of Japan is likely to proceed cautiously with any further policy normalisation.

China entered this period of geopolitical uncertainty with some tentative signs of improving momentum. Industrial profits rose strongly in the first two months of the year and revenues also improved, suggesting that parts of the corporate sector began the year on a firmer footing. While these figures can be influenced by Lunar New Year timing effects, they nevertheless point to some stabilisation in business conditions, particularly among private firms where profit growth was notably stronger. Even so, China remains exposed to the broader global environment. Higher oil prices present a challenge for an economy that is a significant net importer of energy, prompting authorities to cap domestic fuel price increases to help cushion households and businesses. At the same time, trade tensions with the United States resurfaced, with Beijing initially striking a somewhat more conciliatory tone before later launching new investigations into US trade and supply chain practices.

Overall, the week reflected a mixed but generally cautious tone across global markets. In the United States, equities remained under pressure, with the Dow Jones down 0.90%, the S&P 500 declining 2.12%, and the Nasdaq falling 3.23%. European markets were more resilient, with the Euro Stoxx 50 edging up 0.08% and the FTSE 100 gaining 0.49%. In Asia, performance was mixed, as Japan’s Nikkei 225 was broadly unchanged on the week, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.24% and China’s Shanghai Composite declined 1.09%. Bond yields moved modestly higher across most major developed markets as investors continued to weigh inflation risks and the interest rate outlook. In commodities, Brent crude oil fell 4.47% to $107.34 per barrel, although it remains sharply higher year to date, while gold was little changed on the week and is up 2.44% for the year.

Market Moves of the Week

In South Africa, the SARB left the repo rate on hold at 6.75%, in line with expectations, but the tone of the decision was slightly more reassuring than markets had anticipated. Governor Kganyago described the Bank’s approach as prudent, reflecting greater confidence in the recent improvement in South Africa’s macroeconomic backdrop. This was supported by subdued producer inflation, with PPI flat month on month in February and slowing to 1.8% year on year, reinforcing the view that underlying domestic price pressures remain relatively muted.

That said, the SARB also made it clear that the outlook remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly through a weaker rand or a prolonged rise in oil prices. While the base case remains for rates to stay unchanged throughout the rest of the year, the Bank signalled that a more sustained energy shock could justify a 25-basis point hike as early as May. Elsewhere, there were modest signs of improvement in domestic sentiment, with the leading business cycle indicator rising in January and consumer confidence improving slightly in the first quarter, suggesting that lower rates, firmer asset prices and a steadier currency provide some support to the broader economy.

Against this backdrop, South African markets ended the week firmer, diverging from the weaker tone seen across several major global equity markets. The JSE All Share Index gained 1.55%, supported primarily by a strong rebound in resource shares, while financials also posted a solid gain. Industrials were marginally weaker and listed property softened modestly. Despite the weekly improvement, year-to-date performance remains mixed, with most major sectors still in negative territory. The rand softened modestly to R17.10 against the US dollar, while the South African 10-year government bond yield edged slightly lower to 9.19%.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

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The post Markets Navigate Rising Energy Risks appeared first on Capta Wealth.

Week in Review: Middle East Conflict Dominates

Global markets faced a turbulent week as the escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to overshadow economic fundamentals, driving oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in over three years. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical artery through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes has sent energy prices sharply higher, rattling investor confidence across virtually every major asset class and region. Against this backdrop, slowing US economic growth and sticky inflation added to an already complex investment environment.

U.S. equity markets declined for a third consecutive week, with the benchmark S&P 500 ending the week 1.6% lower, recording its lowest level of 2026, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost approximately 2% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.3%. Sentiment was further weighed down by concerns emerging in private credit markets, where several funds moved to cap withdrawals amid a wave of redemption requests.

On the economic front, the data was sobering. US GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised sharply lower to just 0.7% annualised, well below expectations and a meaningful step down from the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024. Core PCE inflation, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure rose 3.1% year-on-year in January, running above the Fed's 2% target. Critically, this data predates the Middle East escalation, meaning the full inflationary impact of energy prices is yet to be captured in official figures.

Consumer confidence also deteriorated, with the University of Michigan Sentiment Index falling to 55.5 in March, its lowest reading in three months, as higher petrol prices weighed directly on household budgets.

European equity markets demonstrated relative resilience, though caution prevailed throughout the week. The pan-European STOXX Europe 50 Index edged marginally lower, slipping just 0.06%, while the UK's FTSE 100 declined 0.23%. Investor focus centred on the likely duration of the Middle East conflict, the trajectory of energy prices, and the potential knock-on effects for European economic growth.

With several major central bank decisions scheduled for the week ahead, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, markets are also beginning to weigh how policymakers will respond to an environment of slowing growth and renewed inflationary pressure from energy costs.

In Asia, Japanese equity markets came under meaningful pressure, with the Nikkei 225 Index declining 3.24% over the week. Japan, as a major energy importer, is particularly exposed to rising oil prices, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced the release of a portion of Japan's strategic oil reserves and introduced subsidies to help contain the rise in domestic petrol prices. The Bank of Japan's rate decision in the coming week will be closely watched for any signal on how policymakers intend to balance inflation concerns against fragile economic momentum.

Chinese equity markets also retreated, with the Shanghai Composite falling 0.70% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declining 1.11%. Despite the broader weakness, Chinese export data offered a bright spot with exports surging 21.8% in the January to February period year-on-year, well ahead of analyst expectations. Consumer inflation also accelerated to its fastest pace in over three years, boosted by Lunar New Year holiday spending on travel and tourism.
 
Gold, typically a beneficiary of geopolitical uncertainty, had another volatile week. Despite edging higher on Friday, bullion was on track for its second consecutive weekly decline, losing 3% for the week. Surging energy prices have paradoxically reduced expectations for near-term US interest rate cuts which is a headwind for gold, which tends to perform better in lower-rate environments.

In the week ahead the war in the Middle East and its impact on energy supply will continue to dictate global markets and will play a key part in a series of rate decisions from major monetary authorities. In the US, The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Investors will focus closely on the updated FOMC economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for guidance on how the Fed is navigating the tension between slowing growth and renewed inflation risks. Rate decisions from the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, and several other major central banks will also feature prominently.

Market Moves of the Week

South African markets came under renewed pressure this week, with the rand, equities, and bonds all weakening as the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict continued to weigh on emerging market sentiment. Rising oil prices pose a particular challenge for South Africa as a net energy importer, amplifying inflation concerns at a time when the domestic economy is showing tentative signs of improvement.

Amid the challenges, there was a welcome bright spot with South Africa recording its first current account surplus in more than two years in the fourth quarter of 2025, meaning the country earned more from exports than it spent on imports. The surplus came in at 0.6% of GDP, swinging from a deficit of 0.9% the prior quarter, driven by a sharp widening of the trade surplus from R169 billion to R282.2 billion. The primary catalyst was higher global prices for precious metals, with the increase in the gold price playing a central role.

The JSE All Share Index declined 1.42% over the week, with resource counters among the notable underperformers. The broader market has now fallen approximately 10% since the start of March which is a sharp reversal that, if sustained, would represent the market's first monthly decline after an impressive 14 consecutive months of gains.

The rand extended its losing streak for a second consecutive week, closing at approximately R16.95 to the US dollar, over 2% lower than the prior week. The weakness reflects both the global flight from emerging market assets and South Africa's specific vulnerability as a net oil importer, with further pressure likely should energy prices remain elevated.

Domestically, investors will focus on the release of January inflation and retail sales data from Statistics South Africa. Inflation figures will be particularly closely watched given the recent surge in global oil prices and rand weakness both of which feed directly into domestic price pressures. Any upside surprise in inflation could complicate the SARB's monetary policy outlook and reduce the likelihood of near-term rate relief for consumers.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

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Week in Review: Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Global Markets

Global markets experienced a volatile week as a combination of geopolitical tensions and economic data created what many investors described as a “perfect storm” in markets. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East following the United States’ military campaign against Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher, raising concerns about renewed inflation pressures at a time when global growth signals are becoming more mixed. Brent crude surged more than 30% during the week amid fears of potential supply disruptions, particularly as the Strait of Hormuz - through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes - faces potential disruption. Higher energy prices have historically been a challenge for both economies and financial markets, as they tend to lift inflation while simultaneously weighing on growth, a combination often referred to as stagflation.

The conflict has broadened into a regional confrontation, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks on several U.S. allies across the Gulf, while the United States and Israel have continued military strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure. Attacks on vessels and energy infrastructure have already been reported, adding to concerns about the security of global energy supply routes. The human toll continues to rise, with casualties exceeding 1,000 people across the region. While diplomatic efforts have reportedly begun, the duration and ultimate scope of the conflict remain uncertain, leaving markets highly sensitive to further developments.

In Europe and the United Kingdom, investor sentiment also deteriorated as higher energy prices raised concerns about inflation and growth. European equities fell sharply over the week, with the STOXX Europe 600 index declining more than 5%. Inflation in the eurozone rose modestly to 1.9% in February, while unemployment fell to a record low of 6.1%, highlighting a mixed macroeconomic backdrop. In the UK, economic indicators suggested modest growth but ongoing fragility. Construction activity weakened and sterling fell to its lowest level in several months as markets assessed the potential economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy costs.

Asian markets were similarly affected by the shift in global risk sentiment. Japanese equities declined sharply as investors assessed the potential inflationary impact of higher oil prices on an economy that remains heavily reliant on imported energy. Chinese markets were also weaker, with investors balancing geopolitical risks against domestic policy developments following the country’s annual National People’s Congress. Chinese policymakers set a GDP growth target of between 4.5% and 5% for 2026 and announced additional fiscal support measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and investment, particularly in technology and advanced manufacturing.

Overall, the week saw a broad risk-off move across financial markets. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 3.01%, the S&P 500 declined 2.02%, and the Nasdaq eased 1.24%. European equities underperformed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 dropping 6.82% and the FTSE 100 falling 5.74%. In Asia, markets were also weaker, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 5.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declining 3.33%, and China’s Shanghai Composite slipping 0.93%. Bond yields moved higher across most developed markets, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.13%, while UK and German 10-year yields increased to 4.57% and 2.86% respectively. In commodities, Brent crude oil surged 27.09% to $92.88 per barrel, reflecting supply concerns linked to Middle East tensions, while gold declined 2.02% but remains up 17.91% year-to-date.

Market Moves of the Week

Recent economic data from South Africa presents a mixed but gradually improving picture. The manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with the ABSA Manufacturing PMI declining to 47.4 in February, signalling continued contraction. However, the S&P Global PMI held steady at 50.0, suggesting that activity across the broader private sector may be stabilising after a difficult period.

Business sentiment has shown some improvement. The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) business confidence index rose to 47 in the first quarter of 2026 from 44 previously - the strongest reading since 2015 outside of the post-COVID rebound. The improvement reflects a more stable political environment, supportive interest rate conditions and a relatively steady currency, although confidence remains below the neutral 50 level, indicating that businesses are still cautious about the economic outlook.

There have also been some encouraging developments on the investment and infrastructure front. A consortium of manganese producers is preparing a bid to build and operate a new export port at Ngqura in partnership with Transnet, which could significantly expand South Africa’s export capacity. At the same time, financiers are working on a R2 billion “water bond” aimed at funding projects to restore key water catchments and improve long-term water security. These initiatives highlight ongoing efforts to strengthen infrastructure and support the country’s longer-term economic resilience.

Local equities ended the week sharply lower, reflecting the broader global risk-off environment. The JSE All Share Index declined 9.24%, with losses broad-based across sectors. Resource stocks led the decline, falling 13.83%, while Financials dropped 10.07%, Listed Property declined 7.46%, and Industrials fell 4.10%. Despite the weekly weakness, performance on a year-to-date basis remains mixed, with Resources still up 10.60%, while Industrials (-8.05%), Financials (-0.59%), and Listed Property (-0.62%) remain slightly negative for the year. The rand weakened to around R16.56 against the U.S. dollar, while the South African 10-year government bond yield rose to 8.49%, reflecting the more cautious global risk backdrop.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

The post Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Global Markets appeared first on Capta Wealth.

Week in Review: Volatility Flares, Fundamentals Hold

Global markets experienced a more volatile week as investors digested a mix of economic data, earnings releases and ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty. While headlines around artificial intelligence and credit markets unsettled sentiment, underlying economic indicators continue to point to a global economy that is slowing in parts but remains broadly resilient.

In the United States, equity markets ended the week lower. The Dow Jones declined 1.31%, the S&P 500 fell 0.44% and the Nasdaq lost 0.95%. Early in the week, markets sold off after a widely circulated research paper reignited concerns about the potential disruptive impact of artificial intelligence across various industries. The report amplified existing nervousness around whether AI could accelerate structural shifts in business models and earnings patterns. Sentiment stabilized midweek ahead of NVIDIA’s quarterly results. Although the company delivered earnings that beat expectations, the strong numbers were not enough to fully reverse the cautious tone, and markets drifted lower into the weekend.

On the economic front, producer price inflation surprised slightly to the upside, rising 0.5% month on month in January and 2.9% year on year, driven largely by services prices. Factory orders declined in December, reflecting some softness in parts of the manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence improved modestly to 91.2, suggesting households remain cautious but not overly pessimistic. Initial jobless claims edged up to 212,000 but continue to point to a labour market that remains relatively stable. U.S. government bond yields moved lower during the week, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining to 3.95%, as investors sought some safety amid equity market volatility.

Asian markets delivered stronger performance. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rallied 3.56%, extending its year to date gain to 16.91%. Investors remain constructive on Japan’s policy direction and corporate reform momentum. Inflation data in Tokyo came in slightly ahead of expectations, reinforcing the view that the Bank of Japan will likely continue with a gradual and measured approach to adjusting interest rates.

In China, markets also advanced, with the Shanghai Composite rising 1.98% and the Hang Seng gaining 0.81%. Trading volumes improved following the Lunar New Year break, and attention is turning to upcoming policy meetings where economic targets and stimulus measures are typically outlined. The People’s Bank of China adjusted certain foreign exchange policy settings in what is seen as a move to manage currency volatility rather than signal a major change in direction.

Market Moves of the Week

South African markets were among the strongest performers this week. The JSE All Share Index rose 4.42%, bringing its year to date gain to 10.90%. The Resources sector led the advance with an 11.39% weekly gain and is now up 28.35% year to date, supported by firm commodity prices. Financials gained 1.49%, while Industrials edged up 0.23% but remain negative for the year. Listed property rose 0.44%. Gold increased 3.27% and Brent crude oil gained 2.14%, providing additional support to the local bourse. The rand strengthened to 15.90 against the U.S. dollar, while the South African 10-year government bond yield declined to 7.97%.

The national budget was broadly well received by markets. Government maintained its projection that debt will peak this fiscal year at 78.9% of GDP before gradually declining over the medium term. Although near term deficit projections were slightly wider, the overall debt path remains stable. A reduction in weekly government bond issuance supported the local bond market. Several tax changes were announced, including an increase in the annual Tax Free Savings Account contribution limit to R46,000, a higher annual capital gains tax exclusion of R50,000 and an increase in the primary residence capital gains exclusion to R3 million. The single discretionary allowance was increased to R2 million per calendar year, and further clarity was provided on the regulatory treatment of crypto assets.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

The post Volatility Flares, Fundamentals Hold appeared first on Capta Wealth.

Week in Review: US GDP Growth Slows

Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that U.S. growth  slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2025, with GDP expanding at an annualised 1.4%. The deceleration was largely driven by a sharp contraction in government spending amid the shutdown, which weighed on overall activity. Consumer spending remained comparatively resilient at 2.4%, though momentum softened relative to earlier in the year, while government spending declined 16.6%. For 2025 overall, economic growth moderated to 2.2% from 2.8% in 2024.

Separately, the BEA reported that headline PCE inflation rose 2.9% year-on-year in December, edging higher from the prior month and marking its highest level since March 2024. Core PCE — the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, which excludes food and energy — increased 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating from November’s 0.2% and 2.8%, respectively.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, released on Wednesday, highlighted a clear split among policymakers over the next move in rates. While some members indicated that additional easing could be appropriate if inflation continues to cool, others pointed to “the possibility that upward adjustments” may be required should price pressures remain elevated. The minutes also noted that the “vast majority of participants” believe downside risks to employment have eased, though the risk of more entrenched inflation remains a concern.

Market Moves of the Week

Headline consumer price inflation in South Africa eased to 3.5% year on year in January 2026, down from 3.6% in December 2025, according to Statistics South Africa. The main contributors to the January reading were housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance and financial services. Core inflation, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy, increased to 3.4%, its highest in nearly a year.
 
Separately, Stats SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey reported that the official unemployment rate declined to 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, from 31.9% in the third quarter, reflecting a modest improvement in labour market conditions. Overall, South Africa’s labour market shows improvements across multiple measures. However, unemployment levels remain exceptionally high, underscoring the persistence of the country’s structural jobs crisis.
 
The JSE All Share Index also ended the week in positive territory, gaining 2.02%, with broad based strength across all sectors. In contrast, the rand softened slightly, depreciating 0.57% against the U.S. dollar to close at R16.03 on Friday.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

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Week in Review: Inflation Cools While the US Labour Market Stays Resilient

The latest inflation data released in the U.S. by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed further signs of easing price pressures in January. Headline consumer prices rose 0.2% month on month, down from 0.3% in December, while the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%, coming in below consensus expectations and marking the lowest level since May. The moderation was largely driven by a notable decline in energy prices, alongside favourable base effects as higher readings from a year ago dropped out of the annual calculation.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% over the month—slightly firmer than December’s 0.2% reading and in line with forecasts. On an annual basis, core CPI rose 2.5%, matching expectations. While the headline data suggests that inflationary pressures are gradually easing, the steadier core reading indicates that underlying price dynamics remain somewhat sticky. Overall, the January report provides cautious optimism that inflation continues to trend in the right direction, even if progress remains uneven. This softer-than-expected inflation backdrop offered Wall Street a degree of relief during the week, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could consider cutting interest rates later this year. Bond yields moved lower in response, with the US 10-year Treasury falling to 4.07% on Friday, its lowest level since early December, as the moderate CPI print reinforced the view that policy easing remains on the table even amid a resilient economy.

Equity markets, however, closed the week lower. The S&P 500 declined 1.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.1%, marking their largest weekly losses since November. Technology shares were particularly volatile, as concerns around artificial intelligence disruption and the significant capital expenditure required to support AI development weighed on sentiment.

Market Moves of the Week

On Thursday night, President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered a candid assessment of South Africa’s most urgent challenges, pledging decisive action on crime, water shortages, dysfunctional municipalities, and the next phase of Eskom’s restructuring. Crime took centre stage, with Ramaphosa describing organised criminal networks as “the most immediate threat to our democracy, our society and our economic development.” He announced a strengthened offensive, including the consolidation of intelligence at the national level and the deployment of multidisciplinary intervention teams aimed at dismantling criminal networks. The South African National Defence Force will also support police operations in hotspot areas.
 
On infrastructure, the government has committed over R156 billion to water and sanitation projects over the next three years, advancing initiatives such as the Lesotho Highlands Water Project and the Ntabelanga Dam. Municipalities that fail to deliver services, Ramaphosa warned, will face consequences. On the energy front, the first round of independent transmission projects will begin this year, enabling private investment to expand the grid, while work continues to address load-shedding caused by transformer overloading and illegal connections.

On the markets, the FTSE/JSE All Share Index ended the week modestly higher, up 0.44%, with mining and resource-linked stocks leading gains thanks to robust demand and favourable commodity prices. Financials also performed well, reflecting continued investor confidence in banks and lenders, while industrials lagged amid currency strength and softer sector performance.

On the currency front, the rand maintained a strong position below the 16.00 level against the dollar, buoyed by high precious metal prices (gold, platinum, palladium) and improved sentiment around South African economic reforms.

Looking ahead, market and economic attention will turn to South Africa’s fourth-quarter unemployment figures, January inflation data, and December retail sales numbers.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

The post Inflation Cools While the US Labour Market Stays Resilient appeared first on Capta Wealth.

Week in Review: Markets Rotate as Technology Leadership Pauses

Global markets delivered a mixed performance this week as investors navigated a combination of economic data, shifting policy expectations and evolving sector leadership. While overall index movements were relatively contained, underlying market dynamics pointed to a continued rotation away from narrow technology leadership toward more cyclical and value-oriented areas.

In the United States, equity markets ended the week divided. The Nasdaq declined 1.84%, reflecting pressure on large-cap technology shares, while the S&P 500 was broadly unchanged at -0.10%. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.50%, supported by gains in more traditional and cyclical sectors. The week highlighted a shift in investor positioning, as concerns around the pace of artificial intelligence investment and its impact on corporate profitability weighed on high-growth companies that have driven market returns in recent years. At the same time, investors rotated into areas of the market that have lagged, including financials and industrials, which benefited from improving economic expectations.

Economic data releases added to the cautious tone. Labour market indicators were softer than anticipated, with slower private job creation, a decline in job openings to their lowest level since 2020 and a notable rise in layoffs. Despite this, parts of the real economy showed resilience. Manufacturing activity returned to expansion territory for the first time in a year, supported by stronger new orders, while services activity remained stable and continued to expand. In fixed income markets, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, supporting bond returns, as investors positioned more defensively amid mixed economic signals.

Market Moves of the Week

South African markets were relatively stable, with the JSE All Share finishing the week unchanged. Performance across sectors was mixed, with financials and listed property posting gains while resources declined amid commodity volatility and industrials were largely flat. The domestic bond market was steady, with the 10-year government yield closing around 8.06%.

On the policy front, South Africa moved to deepen its economic relationship with China through the signing of a new framework agreement aimed at expanding trade and investment ties. The agreement is expected to improve access for South African exports into Chinese markets while encouraging further Chinese investment across sectors such as mining, agriculture, renewable energy and manufacturing. Although still in its early stages, the initiative signals growing economic cooperation and could support longer-term growth and employment prospects.

Overall, the week reinforced a key theme shaping global markets: leadership is broadening. After an extended period dominated by large-cap technology, investors are increasingly allocating toward value-oriented sectors, cyclical industries and regions outside the United States. Economic data remains mixed, with labour markets softening in some areas while manufacturing stabilises and inflation continues to ease. For long-term investors, this environment supports the case for diversification across geographies, asset classes and sectors, as markets adjust to shifting growth expectations and evolving monetary policy paths.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
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CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

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Week in Review: U.S. Confidence Slides in January

After three consecutive cuts, the Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with expectations, in a 10–2 vote, with two officials favouring a 25-basis-point reduction. The accompanying policy statement struck a more constructive tone on growth, noting activity has been expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains somewhat elevated and labour market conditions are showing signs of stabilisation. At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said rates did not appear “significantly restrictive” given economic momentum and reiterated that decisions would be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

On Friday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair when Powell’s term expires in mid-May, subject to Senate confirmation. Warsh served from 2006 to 2011 and was a finalist for the role in 2017. He is viewed as a pragmatist who argues the Fed has strayed from its mandate and that its balance sheet is excessive, with his nomination seen as largely easing recent concerns over central bank independence. The announcement sparked a rebound in the dollar, weighing on precious metals and pushing gold and silver lower after investors had piled into the sector.

Market Moves of the Week

The South African Reserve Bank held its repo rate at 6.75% at its first policy meeting of 2026, with the Monetary Policy Committee opting for caution amid ongoing global and domestic uncertainty and inflation expectations still above the 3% target. While two members favoured a 25-basis-point cut, the majority preferred to maintain the current stance, and the Bank’s projections continue to anticipate gradual easing as inflation trends lower. Governor Lesetja Kganyago noted that inflation is contained but services price pressures persist, and decisions will remain data dependent as the economy navigates risks including currency and administered price developments.

Similar to global peers, the JSE All-Share Index fell 1.83% over the week, dragged lower by a 4.60% drop in resources, while industrials (-1.11%) and SA property (-0.52%) also detracted from returns. Financials were the only sector to record gains, rising 0.44%. In currency markets, the rand strengthened earlier in the week to around R16 per dollar—its firmest level since mid-2022 on the back of elevated gold prices—before ending Friday at R16.13 after a rebound in the dollar, leaving it 0.13% weaker over the week.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
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CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

The post U.S. Confidence Slides in January appeared first on Capta Wealth.

Week in Review: Volatility Flares, Fundamentals Hold

Global markets navigated another week shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment, as renewed U.S. tariff threats briefly unsettled risk appetite before attention returned to economic data and corporate earnings. A fresh round of company earnings is testing whether the AI-driven profit cycle is broadening beyond a narrow group of technology leaders, while recent geopolitical developments underscored how quickly policy uncertainty can re-emerge and influence market confidence. Although volatility proved short-lived, the episode highlighted the persistent tension between political risk and economic fundamentals that continues to define the global investment landscape.

In the United States, markets were initially rattled by an escalation in tariff rhetoric linked to President Trump’s push to acquire Greenland, triggering a sharp risk-off reaction. U.S. equities declined, the dollar weakened, Treasury yields fell and gold surged to record highs, briefly reviving the “sell America” narrative that had emerged at times in 2025. Sentiment improved later in the week after Trump softened his stance and signalled a potential framework for a deal, allowing markets to stabilise. Beneath the political headlines, economic data remained broadly resilient: real GDP growth was revised higher to an annualised 4.4% in the third quarter, core inflation held at 2.8% year-on-year, jobless claims remained near historically low levels and business activity indicators showed modest improvement. Together, these data suggest the U.S. economy continues to expand at a solid pace, even as political uncertainty injects episodic volatility.

Market Moves of the Week

The South African rand strengthened over the week, closing near R16.10/$ as markets positioned ahead of the upcoming interest rate decision and continued to price in supportive global and domestic dynamics. The currency remains close to its strongest levels since mid-2022, underpinned by record-high gold prices, improved fiscal metrics, a credible monetary policy framework and a softer U.S. dollar. The rand has gained more than 2% against the dollar since the start of 2026, with further upside possible should commodity prices remain firm and global risk sentiment stay supportive. However, structural constraints, including weak domestic growth prospects and the currency’s inherent volatility, suggest that recent gains remain vulnerable to shifts in global conditions.

On the macro front, inflation remains well contained, reinforcing expectations that monetary conditions could gradually ease in the year ahead. Consumer inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month in December, following a decline in the previous month, while headline CPI increased to 3.6% year-on-year from 3.5%, remaining within the Reserve Bank’s target range. Domestic data painted a mixed picture: retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in November and accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year, signalling resilient consumer activity, while mining production deteriorated, falling 5.9% month-on-month and declining 2.7% year-on-year, marking a sharp reversal from the prior month’s gains. Overall, South Africa’s macro environment reflects a cautiously improving inflation backdrop and resilient consumption, tempered by ongoing weakness in the mining sector and a still subdued growth outlook.

Local equities advanced over the week, with the JSE All Share Index rising 1.76%, supported by a strong rebound in resource stocks (+7.16%) and solid gains in financials (+1.18%), while listed property also advanced (+0.75%). Industrials lagged the broader market, declining 3.02%. The rand strengthened against the U.S. dollar to around 16.10, while the 10-year South African government bond yield declined to 8.15%, reflecting improved sentiment in local fixed income markets.

Chart of the Week:

.Credits: Strategiq
___________________________________________________________________

CAPTA Wealth offers our clients a wide range of options and solutions when it comes to investing in global markets. Contact us for more information about how we can ensure your portfolio is generating the maximum returns. Our offices around the country and offshore, are poised for wealth creation. Let us focus on yours.

YOUR WEALTH IS OUR FOCUS

The post Volatility Flares, Fundamentals Hold appeared first on Capta Wealth.